FX Monday 08/02/16

1:
GBP support at 1.4350 was reached at 15.15, anticipating a bounce to keep within range with a weak dollar (gold silver strong).  Two green M5 candles so bought at 1.43727 with a stop below 1.4350.  Possible move back up to 1.4450/1.4550.  Potential R6 or 7, moved the stop up and got stopped at R1 at 1.43950. +10.03  GBP didn’t go up as expected, positive outcome.

2:
GBP At 17.15 having tested the 50% fib a couple of times, with higher lows, bought gbp again, looking to break above the 50fib.  Got stopped out for -2.33.  Stop wasn’t too tight, just got stopped.  GBP went back down to 1.43636.  Again, GBP didn’t go up as expected.

3:
Euro 17.33 Greek markets close down 7.87, anticipating Euro sell off, sold Euro at 1.11327 in the middle of a small range.  Managed to move stop to break even before Euro went up.  Had been pushing on 23 fib at 1.11450 (round number).  +.45 Wrong call, but entry meant I managed to come out without loss.  

4:
GBP 17.45 Trying to catch move above the 50 fib of the previous weeks move from low to high.  Had tested it twice, bounced off 1.43750 twice so after 2 green M5 candles bought at 1.43837, moved stop and got stopped at 1.43846 for +.40  Entered too early, should have waited for move back down below 1.43750.  But difficult call, entry did mean had no loss.

5:
Euro having been pushing on the 23 fib of  previous weeks move from low to high, as well as the 1.11450 S/R level, broke above and closed above on the M5 at 17.55.  Bought at 1.11481 and got stopped at 1.11811 having moved stop up.   +14.76.  Entered well, was positioned for move up to 1.12 if it had happened.  

23.31 up on the day.  Used S/R levels as well as fibs.  

FX Thursday 2016

After Tuesdays debacle, here we go.

Typically, all bets are off.  China suspended it’s stock market, which meant the carefully thought out short I put on last night got stopped out minutes after the news as Euro went up.  Euro is now in a range between 1.0725 and 1.0825.  I’ve just sold, which would have been a good decision an hour ago, as it reached the 1.0825 level, and started to retrace.  Not so sure now, as there is previous s/r at 1.0785. I got out for 1pip and .02 which was the right thing to do, I think, as the trade was so awful. It’s either going to break through or bounce

I really must get a notice board up with, amongst other things, the “things to do before putting a trade on” list, even if you have looked at them 10 min ago, you’ve prob forgotten.  My ability to put a trade at exactly the wrong place is uncanny.  I need the list right above the monitor.  I can hear Tom Dante “Previous resistance acting as support, cunt”

FX Tuesday 05/01/16

OK, Tuesdays lesson is:
As well as “revenge trades” I fall victim to “boredom trades” which are closely related to “greed trades”.

I didn’t write up or do a plan.  First mistake.  Because no one is entirely sure, especially on Euro, wtf is going on.  So I put on 2 trades, with small lots, and tight stops, both buys on what could have been a bounce, but almost certainly wasn’t.  Waiting until 1.0725 would have been a lot more likely, but no.

Needless to say, shortly after that, @leanco tweeted “don’t run after a bus, there will always be another” I’m sure there’s a better metaphor, but yes.

So I put in a revenge trade buy euro.  And another one sell EUR/GPB.  Both because Blake said so. Neither of them are looking awful so far.

But they all did.  They were all awful.  It was a day of revenge trades, boredom trades, stupid trades and greed trades.  It started off bad, and got worse.  Which pearl of wisdom I’ve heard before.  I have to start taking it seriously, or not, and stop that bit of my head which goes “it’s only a demo/insta account” you might as well do stupid trades to see if they work.  They don’t.

Pffft.  Wasn’t in the right place from the off.

FX Monday 4 Jan 2016

Ding dong. New Year and all that.

EURO, still ranging 1.08 – 1.10.  In a downtrend, it fell out of a range between 1.090 and 1.0950 leading up to NY, closing at 1.0861.  I think it will fall on the open, and continue down to 1.80 before ranging back up.  German data at 1pm, US data at 3pm.  Consensus seems to be:
i. Continued dollar strength, and EURO due a fall.
ii. Probably carry on existing range leading up to NFP on Friday.

Euro did fall on the open, down to 1.0825, and then did bounce.  I’m going to wait for EURO to hit 1.0980 at least before selling. 1.09 could be resistance now forming support.  Lots of Euro data also this morning, so I’m waiting for the dust to settle. Patience.

@leanco just put up a chart with trendlines also suggesting this, ie a sell at 1.0980, with the other end of the range being around the 1.0850

Just bought at 1.0904 with 0.02 on the premise that the EURO will carry on up, to at leaset 1.0930 will put s/l above b/e if it does.  At the moment s/l is -7pips. Which moved up to +5pips and stopped for .10.  As it happened, it wouldn’t have been possible to hold on just below b/e and go for 15 pips.

I think I’ve reconciled the taking small profits thing.  While learning, (ok, you never stop learning, but) take the small profits and learn how to take the larger ones.  If in fact I ever do.

OK. @pipczar thinks dollar could go to 1.11, and thinks 1.0870 is a good place to get long…  And the GBP is in trouble…

Right. 4 Trades today:
1st. I bought the EURO as above, it did go up, not as far as I thought it might, and moving the s/l to come out with 5pips was a good thing, as some dodgy German data sent it down 140pips.
2nd was an idiot trade.  Bought Euro expecting a bounce.  Of course I didn’t check the timing of the US data out at 3 that I mentioned already.  Out for –19pips.
3rd Was a winner.  And on Cable.  Black Morrow said he expected a bounce after Cable fell out of it’s channel.  Which I thought was a fair enough proposition.  After the also dodgy US data.  It saw me very nicely for 34pips.
4th Was also a winner.  I bought Euro shortly after the cable trade, which had also fallen out of it’s channel, and was showing promise to the upside.  Euro & Cable doing same thing. Only held it for 12pips before it got it’s s/l.  Was nervous about Euro being sensible, and it appeared to be slowing.

So, I’m happy with that.  The losing trade was a stupid one, the trade that was wrong I got out of with a +ve, the two trades that were right were good.  All the trades were at .02 so less profit, the Cable trade was at .05 as it seemed more certain.  All had tight s/l.
That works out at .75 profit on a capital of $17, which I’m happy with. 5% return? So far,  so sensible.  S/L were at about 10pips, so .2, which is ok risk.

FX Tuesday 22/12/15

Tom Dante’s self improvement chart:
Got out of bed on time and prepared fully before the open
Kept to my trading plan completely
Executed flawlessly
Kept within my pre-defined risk parameters
Held a complete post session review including what I missedand made detailed notes on what I could have done better.
Filled all completed trades taken into a trading journal.

Also: Chant “I am not a cunt” Whenever I feel like moving SL to BE – Not to sure about this one.

Daily plan:
Euro still in 1.8 to 1.10 range. At present ranging between 1.09 and 1.094.  Still ranging up from 1.08 from 17th with higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. 1.910 at the 61% fib is providing support on the M15 chart.  At present it has bounced off resistance at 1.0940 and should be heading down to 1.0910 for a buy to head back up.
Mixed news, Spanish uncertainty for next few weeks.

Cable: Support at 1.4880 on the M60.  At the bottom of the downward range on the Daily, possible bounce.  Marc Chandler: Sterling also acts like a dog. It cannot get out of it’s own way.  1.4750 – 1.4800 next technical target.

Mon 21/12/15 Part 2

This is what should have happened:

Euro is trading in a channel 1.08 – 1.10 since the ECB on the 3rd.  1.08 is also the 38% of the fib of the ecb move.  1.10 is the top of the ECB move.  The fib of the retracement from the ECB high at 1.10 to 1.08 also gives s/r at 23%, 38% and 50%.  Also S/R at 1.0880 and 1.9.  Previous day close positive, early gains on Sunday.
Volatility due to thin liquidity, also possible due to Spanish election uncertainty.

After writing this, all trades were into profit until a drunk trade AT THE TOP OF THE RANGE went back down.

FX Mon 21/12/15

The keeping of the journal has been absolutely rubbish.  The trading has been… well, I choose to call it successful.  I’m trying to work out what sort of trading suits my experience and personality… Short term scalping/range trading.  The big losses have come from stupid trades.

Mostly I’ve been range trading EUR/USD, and it hasn’t been entirely unsuccessful.   Apart from this morning, when I should have taken profits when I could.  The first trade has gone wrong, the 2nd trade and the first trade went briefly right, the 3rd and 4th are now also wrong.  But I need to work out what timescale I’m looking to take profits from.  If I’m prepared to take small/medium profits from most trades, small to medium losses, and sometimes a big profit, it means sitting in front of the screen all the time those trades are in progress.  Those trades just got wiped.  So instead of being 40 up, I’m 220 down!

In retrospect, the 15min chart is going up, since Friday morning, Euro’s ranging between 1.8 and 1.10, and has been since the ECB on the 3rd.  So selling at 1.086-7 was not the best idea.  Could have come out with 40, then re-grouped.  Best policy now is wait for pull back, and buy?  But Spanish election uncertainty probably means don’t.

FX Thursday 10/12/15

Euro sank overnight, is this the great sell off?  1.09800 is a s/r with a 100 fib of the previous move to the low.  It’s now (0844) trying to get back above that, or get lower.  I’ve already lost 20 and gained 5.   But very tight stops once move in play.  And one move where the stop was so tight it got stopped.  Immediately.  A casualty of the MT40 20 pips copy as button.

As an aside, I’ve got a DAX trade on the IG demo account, for one out of interest, for two to look at the DAX/EUR inverse correlation.

My timeframes have got smaller and smaller.  I’ve gone from m15, to m5, to m1.  And instead of t/p’s, really tight s/l, that get moved and manually trailed.  Which is  labour intensive task.  Trying to stick to the patience mantra, but it’s failing so far this morning.  Fear of missin out.  FOMO which has gone from my social life, but moved to trading.  Actually, it’s always there with trading.  Overcoming that is key.

I suppose, well, at the moment my justification is, I’m feeling out the market this morning, testing theories.  Seeing where things are heading.  Etc.  And more bullshit like that.  But once again, as the other day, I’m picking entries slap bang in the middle of the range, instead of waiting.  But I am managing to resist the temptation to open another trade where I “should” have entered.

OK. It might not be the great sell off.  Now reading US Hike does not = strong dollar, @leanco says up to the 127 of the fib mentioned above… so I’m going to try and get out of this trade without a loss and see what gives.  Alternative theory:  Euro’s going down to take out the longs, before whipping back up.  I’ve stopped out for another 8, I’m still over the psychologically important 1000.

Just had another of those “washing up moments”.  I’ve entered in the middle of the range again.  Last 3 trades have all been in the 2-3 range… better than nothing, but they’ve all been sells, which is, I’m pretty sure, where the market it heading.  Now have a sell on, that will prove that point.  I’m sure.

It was all going quite well, until I put on a trade with a 0.5 lot, instead of .25.  Needless to say my exquisitely timed entry counted for nought when it ripped my face off the wrong way.  I suppose, considering I haven’t been able to work out wtf way Euro was trending, the day could have gone worse.

FX Wednesday 09/11/05

Ah, it’s good to wake up to a laugh.

On Monday and Tuesday I tried to trade channels and ranges on the Euro/USD, and mostly failed.  For fairly obvious reasons, and if I’d been in a better place I would have traded with a lot more consideration.  I consistently bought in the wrong place, and got stopped.  I need to go back and check what actually happened, the stops were tight.

Anyway, I set up a trade this morning, put on channels for an upward range with Euro, placed a trade at what I judged to be the bottom of a fairly narrow range with the Euro going up, and it was only when I placed the trade I realised I had a trade on from last night, and it was up 90 Euros.   No s/l or t/p. They now both of s/l on that will bring in a nice profit.  The account is almost back above where it started (1000) as opposed to where it was yesterday (748?)  Both trades out for a combined 117.  Euro now very volatile in it’s channel.

Now I’m suffering from that malaise of, well, it’s been a good day, why fuck it up?  Going to go with Tom Dante’s advice, if it’s started good, it’ll be a good day. Starts bad, it’ll carry on.  We shall see.

Now a buy at the bottom of the “inner” channel.  With a stop on the outer channel.  Trade lasted less than 4 mins and for +23

Trades continued in that vein, I bought dips, with patience, mostly, all the way up.  OK, not all the way, but the last one was an automated buy limit that got stopped at a respectable amount, but EURO broke out and went all the way up to 1.09800 (from a daily start at 1.08360)  Having hit 1.0980 it now looks to be ranging down nicely.  But who knows.  It didn’t. It ranged back up.  And despite saying to myself, buy a dip. Buy a dip.  Because I don’t know what it’s doing, but buying a dip is logical. Step away, it’s an unknown at a massive s/r, buy a dip.  So I sold when it went up to the hourly high.  Sense prevailed and I set a really short stop.  Shorter than the last one.  But really.  I almost went and did the washing up, but thought, no, I’ll just sell that high.  FFS.  PATIENCE. PATIENCE. PATIENCE.  I’m going to wash up.