FX 17/10/16

Obviously, after that successful Tuesday, which was a day off “real work” Wednesday Thursday and Friday were not so good.  The real stinker was Thursday, which culminated in three NZ/USD trades that are still in play, with huge s/l that would be … account changing.  I’m still bearish the trade.  /laughs bitterly.

So here is what I’m going to try and take forward this week:
Don’t trade drunk. Treat it like a job.  A difficult job.  OK, maybe this needs refining.  Don’t decide strategy’s drunk. Don’t make shit up.
Don’t add to losing trades. (How do you define “losing” as opposed to “got in early just in case; I’ll add some more)
Really important:  Don’t ignore conditionals when 50pips says something.  The key words on Thursday were: “Hold of this break (0.7060 on Kiwi) and .69’s attract”  The bread didn’t hold, I got in.  Three times.  Adding to a losing position.
Now. Also. I had a number of opportunities to get out of this trade with a profit.  Most notably on Friday afternoon, Friday evening just before close, and again just after the open on Sunday.  Am I taking this seriously, or not? If I had, the account would be up 10%, instead of 3.3%.  But a bit academic, because I shouldn’t have been in the trades in the first place.  What’s the expression?  A bad trade that is profitable is worse than a good trade that isn’t, but was according to rules?  These firmly fall into that category.

It’s been a while

Not sure why I stopped, maybe it was the approach of spring.

It might have been because I realised that writing a diary of my trades wasn’t working.  But neither has anything else.  I’m still trading, and I’ve worked out that I would be successful if I cut out the stupid trades, and took profits earlier.  Which sounds a bit “well, duh” and it is.

But trading is the hardest thing I’ve ever done, as well as the thing I’ve most wanted to succeed at (apart from relationships).  Partly that desire to succeed drives the bad trades.  As well as impatience.    I’ll sit down, tired, probably grumpy and think fuck it, that’ll work.  It doesn’t.  Also, when I’ve had some losing trades and by necessity I work on tight margins (well, not true, I trade on tight margins because I try to trade at a size that will have an emotional as well as financial impact, using the 10% account size with one broker theory.)  Which is fine until you start getting to the point where  you margin gets to only being able to have one trade on at a time, at which point I get frustrated, really want to get my account size back up, then blow it instead.  Pffft.

So today I went back to demo trading, on Darwinex, which is the broker I’d like to use, (but they need a 500 min deposit) Obviously, the days been a success.  Big stops where appropriate, moving stops where appropriate, I started with 1000 and I’m up 8%.

So. Issues.
1.  Is it because it’s demo?
2. Is it because it’s Darwinex?
3. Is it because the trades fifty said I got on?
4.  Is it because I’ve got a bigger margin, so feel more comfortable?
5. Is it because it’s MT4, which I’m more comfortable with then the web interface of Core Spreads?

Also, other issues:
1. I still have an uncanny ability to pick the bottom/top of a range, when a pair is consolidating.  Which is FOMO.  I just squeezed out a 0.1R on a Kiwi trade, after being down about a lot.

Today I’ve traded with the daily bias, (or in golds case, what what should have been the daily bias), I’ve marked up channels on TF’s and Fibs down to 5M, and it’s worked.  Loved the snappyness of darwinex, loved being able to move sl’s around quicky.

Biggest loser was a Cable trade where stop was too close, still big but trade went in right direction eventually.  Not even sure the stop wasn’t in the right place.

Biggest winner was a USDCAD that did a belter.  When CAD is trending, it trends very nicely.  Fibs on 5M chart hit lovely.


FX Monday 08/02/16

GBP support at 1.4350 was reached at 15.15, anticipating a bounce to keep within range with a weak dollar (gold silver strong).  Two green M5 candles so bought at 1.43727 with a stop below 1.4350.  Possible move back up to 1.4450/1.4550.  Potential R6 or 7, moved the stop up and got stopped at R1 at 1.43950. +10.03  GBP didn’t go up as expected, positive outcome.

GBP At 17.15 having tested the 50% fib a couple of times, with higher lows, bought gbp again, looking to break above the 50fib.  Got stopped out for -2.33.  Stop wasn’t too tight, just got stopped.  GBP went back down to 1.43636.  Again, GBP didn’t go up as expected.

Euro 17.33 Greek markets close down 7.87, anticipating Euro sell off, sold Euro at 1.11327 in the middle of a small range.  Managed to move stop to break even before Euro went up.  Had been pushing on 23 fib at 1.11450 (round number).  +.45 Wrong call, but entry meant I managed to come out without loss.  

GBP 17.45 Trying to catch move above the 50 fib of the previous weeks move from low to high.  Had tested it twice, bounced off 1.43750 twice so after 2 green M5 candles bought at 1.43837, moved stop and got stopped at 1.43846 for +.40  Entered too early, should have waited for move back down below 1.43750.  But difficult call, entry did mean had no loss.

Euro having been pushing on the 23 fib of  previous weeks move from low to high, as well as the 1.11450 S/R level, broke above and closed above on the M5 at 17.55.  Bought at 1.11481 and got stopped at 1.11811 having moved stop up.   +14.76.  Entered well, was positioned for move up to 1.12 if it had happened.  

23.31 up on the day.  Used S/R levels as well as fibs.  

FX Thursday 2016

After Tuesdays debacle, here we go.

Typically, all bets are off.  China suspended it’s stock market, which meant the carefully thought out short I put on last night got stopped out minutes after the news as Euro went up.  Euro is now in a range between 1.0725 and 1.0825.  I’ve just sold, which would have been a good decision an hour ago, as it reached the 1.0825 level, and started to retrace.  Not so sure now, as there is previous s/r at 1.0785. I got out for 1pip and .02 which was the right thing to do, I think, as the trade was so awful. It’s either going to break through or bounce

I really must get a notice board up with, amongst other things, the “things to do before putting a trade on” list, even if you have looked at them 10 min ago, you’ve prob forgotten.  My ability to put a trade at exactly the wrong place is uncanny.  I need the list right above the monitor.  I can hear Tom Dante “Previous resistance acting as support, cunt”

FX Tuesday 05/01/16

OK, Tuesdays lesson is:
As well as “revenge trades” I fall victim to “boredom trades” which are closely related to “greed trades”.

I didn’t write up or do a plan.  First mistake.  Because no one is entirely sure, especially on Euro, wtf is going on.  So I put on 2 trades, with small lots, and tight stops, both buys on what could have been a bounce, but almost certainly wasn’t.  Waiting until 1.0725 would have been a lot more likely, but no.

Needless to say, shortly after that, @leanco tweeted “don’t run after a bus, there will always be another” I’m sure there’s a better metaphor, but yes.

So I put in a revenge trade buy euro.  And another one sell EUR/GPB.  Both because Blake said so. Neither of them are looking awful so far.

But they all did.  They were all awful.  It was a day of revenge trades, boredom trades, stupid trades and greed trades.  It started off bad, and got worse.  Which pearl of wisdom I’ve heard before.  I have to start taking it seriously, or not, and stop that bit of my head which goes “it’s only a demo/insta account” you might as well do stupid trades to see if they work.  They don’t.

Pffft.  Wasn’t in the right place from the off.

FX Monday 4 Jan 2016

Ding dong. New Year and all that.

EURO, still ranging 1.08 – 1.10.  In a downtrend, it fell out of a range between 1.090 and 1.0950 leading up to NY, closing at 1.0861.  I think it will fall on the open, and continue down to 1.80 before ranging back up.  German data at 1pm, US data at 3pm.  Consensus seems to be:
i. Continued dollar strength, and EURO due a fall.
ii. Probably carry on existing range leading up to NFP on Friday.

Euro did fall on the open, down to 1.0825, and then did bounce.  I’m going to wait for EURO to hit 1.0980 at least before selling. 1.09 could be resistance now forming support.  Lots of Euro data also this morning, so I’m waiting for the dust to settle. Patience.

@leanco just put up a chart with trendlines also suggesting this, ie a sell at 1.0980, with the other end of the range being around the 1.0850

Just bought at 1.0904 with 0.02 on the premise that the EURO will carry on up, to at leaset 1.0930 will put s/l above b/e if it does.  At the moment s/l is -7pips. Which moved up to +5pips and stopped for .10.  As it happened, it wouldn’t have been possible to hold on just below b/e and go for 15 pips.

I think I’ve reconciled the taking small profits thing.  While learning, (ok, you never stop learning, but) take the small profits and learn how to take the larger ones.  If in fact I ever do.

OK. @pipczar thinks dollar could go to 1.11, and thinks 1.0870 is a good place to get long…  And the GBP is in trouble…

Right. 4 Trades today:
1st. I bought the EURO as above, it did go up, not as far as I thought it might, and moving the s/l to come out with 5pips was a good thing, as some dodgy German data sent it down 140pips.
2nd was an idiot trade.  Bought Euro expecting a bounce.  Of course I didn’t check the timing of the US data out at 3 that I mentioned already.  Out for –19pips.
3rd Was a winner.  And on Cable.  Black Morrow said he expected a bounce after Cable fell out of it’s channel.  Which I thought was a fair enough proposition.  After the also dodgy US data.  It saw me very nicely for 34pips.
4th Was also a winner.  I bought Euro shortly after the cable trade, which had also fallen out of it’s channel, and was showing promise to the upside.  Euro & Cable doing same thing. Only held it for 12pips before it got it’s s/l.  Was nervous about Euro being sensible, and it appeared to be slowing.

So, I’m happy with that.  The losing trade was a stupid one, the trade that was wrong I got out of with a +ve, the two trades that were right were good.  All the trades were at .02 so less profit, the Cable trade was at .05 as it seemed more certain.  All had tight s/l.
That works out at .75 profit on a capital of $17, which I’m happy with. 5% return? So far,  so sensible.  S/L were at about 10pips, so .2, which is ok risk.

FX Tuesday 22/12/15

Tom Dante’s self improvement chart:
Got out of bed on time and prepared fully before the open
Kept to my trading plan completely
Executed flawlessly
Kept within my pre-defined risk parameters
Held a complete post session review including what I missedand made detailed notes on what I could have done better.
Filled all completed trades taken into a trading journal.

Also: Chant “I am not a cunt” Whenever I feel like moving SL to BE – Not to sure about this one.

Daily plan:
Euro still in 1.8 to 1.10 range. At present ranging between 1.09 and 1.094.  Still ranging up from 1.08 from 17th with higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. 1.910 at the 61% fib is providing support on the M15 chart.  At present it has bounced off resistance at 1.0940 and should be heading down to 1.0910 for a buy to head back up.
Mixed news, Spanish uncertainty for next few weeks.

Cable: Support at 1.4880 on the M60.  At the bottom of the downward range on the Daily, possible bounce.  Marc Chandler: Sterling also acts like a dog. It cannot get out of it’s own way.  1.4750 – 1.4800 next technical target.

Mon 21/12/15 Part 2

This is what should have happened:

Euro is trading in a channel 1.08 – 1.10 since the ECB on the 3rd.  1.08 is also the 38% of the fib of the ecb move.  1.10 is the top of the ECB move.  The fib of the retracement from the ECB high at 1.10 to 1.08 also gives s/r at 23%, 38% and 50%.  Also S/R at 1.0880 and 1.9.  Previous day close positive, early gains on Sunday.
Volatility due to thin liquidity, also possible due to Spanish election uncertainty.

After writing this, all trades were into profit until a drunk trade AT THE TOP OF THE RANGE went back down.

FX Mon 21/12/15

The keeping of the journal has been absolutely rubbish.  The trading has been… well, I choose to call it successful.  I’m trying to work out what sort of trading suits my experience and personality… Short term scalping/range trading.  The big losses have come from stupid trades.

Mostly I’ve been range trading EUR/USD, and it hasn’t been entirely unsuccessful.   Apart from this morning, when I should have taken profits when I could.  The first trade has gone wrong, the 2nd trade and the first trade went briefly right, the 3rd and 4th are now also wrong.  But I need to work out what timescale I’m looking to take profits from.  If I’m prepared to take small/medium profits from most trades, small to medium losses, and sometimes a big profit, it means sitting in front of the screen all the time those trades are in progress.  Those trades just got wiped.  So instead of being 40 up, I’m 220 down!

In retrospect, the 15min chart is going up, since Friday morning, Euro’s ranging between 1.8 and 1.10, and has been since the ECB on the 3rd.  So selling at 1.086-7 was not the best idea.  Could have come out with 40, then re-grouped.  Best policy now is wait for pull back, and buy?  But Spanish election uncertainty probably means don’t.